Sports Betting: Making Correlated Wagers

Published:28 August 2020

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One way to achieve full advantage when placing total bets is to know that there is a link between the total bet you are making and the spread of the point of a game. For example, let's say you're betting the under based on the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is playing with less than 100% health and you think the Steelers are running the ball and eating the clock.

Currently, if the Steelers are in the game -7.5 favourites, then maybe your belief that the game is going down also means that their rival is more likely to fill the +7.5 point gap. If this is the case, in a parlay bet we recommend betting the spread of the point and the sum together.

Odds or Evens

Possibly to say what is clear to everyone, even and odd number numbers make a big difference in some sports. This includes low scoring sports like baseball, hockey and in some cases, soccer. Bear in mind that if a game ends in a tie in baseball and hockey, it continues until the tie is broken. Since ties often reflect an even number of points, it is easy to see that an odd aggregate result is more likely to occur than an even total result.

What does it apply to football? Soccer games are not permitted to end in a tie under certain cases, like elimination tournaments, for example. A cumulative betting line of 2.5 has only four ways for the under to win in these matches. This are [1-0],[0-1],[2-0] and [0-2]

Remember that the only way to win the under bet is by a shutout. We've also seen occasional bets on arbitrage (betting where you can bet several sides of a game to guarantee a win) only by taking this into account.

Complete wagers put on football matches where a tie needs to be broken often only take into account the first 90 minutes of average time. In that case, the under will potentially have six potential score lines to win. Possibilities will be 0-0 and 1-1 too.

Avoiding Suckers Bets

We can't reiterate rather how crucial it is to avoid sucker bets. Getting teaser bets on totals, for example, is a long-term losing strategy that is best avoided. How else are suckers doing? Forget looking for the best lines around.

As mentioned earlier, recreational betting sites will also shade lines or change odds to make it easier for those who wager on the more common choices. It is to catch the bettors who appear to lose often because they DO make loser bets.